Trade invoicing is fragmenting faster than reserve holdings
The headline dollar share is stable. The transactional layer beneath it is not.
Reserve composition changes slowly and is watched closely. Invoicing composition changes quickly and is watched hardly at all — which is why the latter is where the interesting movement is.
Bilateral settlement arrangements across Asia, the Gulf and parts of Africa now cover a meaningful share of commodity and intermediate-goods flow. None of them threaten dollar primacy. All of them reduce the friction cost of eventually doing so.
For corporate treasury, the practical effect today is narrower: more currency pairs to hedge, and more counterparties to assess.