Graduation rates, not entry valuations, are the number to watch
The share of seed companies reaching a priced Series A has reset to a structurally lower level.
Capital DeskPublished 3 days ago
Entry valuations attract attention because they are published. Graduation rates matter more because they determine how much of a fund's capital ever compounds.
The current cohort is converting at a materially lower rate than the previous cycle, and the gap is concentrated in companies that raised large seeds on pre-product narratives.
For allocators the implication is uncomfortable but simple: seed portfolio construction assumptions built on the last decade are wrong by a wide margin.
Drafted with AI assistance and reviewed by the Leaders & Impact editorial desk. Sourcing and factual assertion remain human-owned.