Transition capital expenditure is being held to ordinary return hurdles
The separate green budget is disappearing, and that is mostly good news.
Ring-fenced sustainability budgets protected early projects from scrutiny they would not have survived. They also capped them at a scale that could never matter.
Folding transition projects into the ordinary capital allocation process kills the weak ones quickly and funds the strong ones at a size that moves an emissions curve.
The projects that clear the hurdle are unromantic: process heat, industrial efficiency, grid connection. The showcase projects rarely do.